Islamic State Regains Strength in Syria and Iraq

Reuters reports that more than 20 sources—diplomats, Syrian, Iraqi, American, and European officials—have expressed fears that ISIS is attempting a revival after its territorial defeat in 2017.

According to Straight Arrow News, the group has relocated personnel from desert areas to urban centers, focusing on vulnerable infrastructure. Sleeper cells have resurfaced, taking advantage of the reduction in coalition patrols in eastern Syria.

A January report from the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project warned that ISIS "has gradually rebuilt its capabilities since 2022 in the central Syrian desert and gradually infiltrated regime-held villages along the Euphrates River."

Ali al-Saidi, an adviser to the Iraqi forces, told Reuters that surveillance had detected a surge in ISIS activity in the Hamrim Mountains, and several sources feared the fighters were carrying explosives and weapons. Syrian and Iraqi security forces say they have foiled at least a dozen plots since the beginning of the year.

Colonel Abdul Ameer al-Bayati of the Iraqi army told Reuters that ISIS elements have been "emboldened by the chaos in Syria." Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein confirmed that Baghdad was in contact with Damascus regarding the group's cross-border movements and warned that Syria risked becoming a base for further attacks.

According to the SITE Intelligence Group, the number of attacks claimed has declined. SITE director Rita Katz said the decline likely reflected a change in tactics, not a decline in capabilities, and that the group may be "rethinking its strategy."

Reuters reported that the group has shifted fighters and weapons to other cities, including Aleppo, Homs, and Damascus, since the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last December.

As of last July, U.S. military officials estimated that there were about 2,500 of the group's fighters "at large in Iraq and Syria." Concerns are growing about the ability of Syria's new leadership to maintain control as U.S. forces withdraw.

Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria's new Islamist leader, has pledged to strengthen domestic intelligence. His interim government is under pressure from both its Western allies and radical factions.

In May, the group urged foreign fighters in Syria to join its ranks. Intelligence services have tracked a small number of suspected foreign fighters who entered Syria from Europe in recent months.

At least two escape attempts have also been reported from prisons and detention camps housing members of the group and their families, according to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which continues to guard the facilities.

At this time, no official believes the group can reestablish territorial control, but analysts and military leaders agree that a prolonged insurgency remains a credible threat if not contained. 

“ISIS is not yet in a position to conquer territory or wage protracted campaigns, but it will undoubtedly attempt to muster the resources to do so in the coming months and years unless prevented,” according to the Critical Threats Project.

In late May, the group claimed responsibility for its first two attacks against the Syrian transitional government, claiming to have killed or wounded seven members of what it called “the apostate Syrian regime.”

Concerns have also been raised about pro-ISIS sentiment in the al-Hol and Roj detention camps in northeast Syria, which house more than 55,000 detainees, mostly women and children linked to the group.

Many of the minors have spent their entire lives in captivity and have exhibited violent behavior, emulating the radicalized behavior of their parents. Some fear that these sites could become breeding grounds for the “next caliphate puppies.”